Nov 2023: List Of Various Election Results (LOVER) Preview

Outside, the leaves are turning, pumpkin spice lattes are brewing, and jack-o-lanterns are slowly being eaten by ants. That can only mean one thing…it’s election season!

For those of you who are new to the Collective, I’m excited to introduce you to my sporadic Taylor Swift-themed election newsletter, LOVER (which obviously stands for List Of Various Election Results). With so much on the ballot that’ll be decided tomorrow, I figured I’d send a little sneak peak of the races (almost all state-and-local) that I’ll be following this week. So drop the needle on folklore, put on your favority cardigan, and dig in. As always, I recommend Bolts Magazine’s “What’s On The Ballot” for a good cheat sheet.

• OH Abortion Referendum (Issue 1): After a big win to keep ballot measures alive in August’s special election, health care advocates are hoping to enshrine the right to an abortion in the Ohio State Constitution. Polling has been tight all year, with the Yes campaign (the pro-choice position) maintaining a single digit lead and outpacing the opposition in paid media. If the Yes campaign wins, this will be the 6th straight statewide ballot measure that would help enshrine abortion care into state law following the Dobbs case (after KS, MT, KY, VT, CA, and MI). Check out the best testing ad that the Yes campaign has run this year.
• MS Governor: Incumbent GOP Gov. Tate Reeves is running for reelection in this reliably red state, but he is facing a real challenge from Democratic candidate Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (yes, he is related to Elvis). Reeves has been reeling from numerous scandals involving welfare dollars, Brett Favre, a volleyball stadium, and so much more (seriously, google it). Presley has been making inroads with Reeves’ GOP base. If neither candidate gets above 50% of the vote (which is what polling suggests), the two top candidates will go to a November 28th runoff.
• KY Governor: Incumbent Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear faces GOP Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Beshear is consistently rated one of the most popular governors in the country, but Kentucky’s red hue means that any statewide race would be competitive here. Beshear has blasted Cameron’s mealy-mouthed responses to questions about banning abortion in Kentucky.
• VA State Legislature: Virginia’s legislature is up for grabs this year, with Democrats hoping to grow their slim 22–17 majority in the State Senate and try to flip back the House of Delegates, which the GOP controls by a narrow 52–48 majority. This election is the first one being run under new legislative maps that led to numerous retirements and rejections in the June primary. All 40 Senate seats and 100 House seats are on the ballot but the key geographies are mostly in the DC exurbs, Richmond suburbs, and the Hampton Roads area.
• PA State Supreme Court: The death of a Democratic justice triggered an open seat on Pennsylvania’s 7-seat Supreme Court. Democrats currently hold a 4–2 majority on the court, but rulings have not always broken down on party lines. The PA Supreme Court will be particularly critical in deciding decisions regarding election administration and voting in the 2024 election. The election pits Democrat Daniel McCaffery, a judge on the Pennsylvania Superior Court, one of the state’s intermediate appellate courts, against Republican Carolyn Carluccio, a judge on the Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas, a local trial court. McCaffery has stressed his blue-collar bio while Carluccio has tried to downplay her GOP affiliation.

Election Administration races:

• Bucks County (PA) Commission: Democrats flipped this massive suburban county’s board in 2019, creating a firewall that stood against efforts to restrict mail voting and election subversion efforts in 2020. Pennsylvanians will now decide who oversees 2024 elections in this crucial bellwether for the Presidential and Senate contest. Similar races will take place in Luzerne County (PA) and Lancaster County (PA), where election deniers had to be sued to certify Joe Biden’s victory.
• Culpeper County (VA) Sheriff: A MAGA aligned “constitutional sheriff” faces multiple challengers after getting caught in a bribery and fraud scandal. This race is one of several sheriff races that are increasingly important for election administration advocates — as sheriffs across the country are starting to create “election integrity units” which harass voters in the name of tamping down election fraud.

Climate Action races: Our friends at working on downballot climate elections have flagged a few races for us:

• Allegheny County (PA) Executive: Progressive Democratic State Rep. Sara Innamorato faces Republican Joe Rockey in a race with huge ramifications for criminal justice reform, election administration, and fossil fuel development. The next county executive will have the power to stop fracking countywide and Rockey has been backed by large fossil fuel companies.
• Mississippi Public Service Commission: The MS PSC will make critical decisions in the next few years that will impact clean energy adoption in the Southeast. Winning this election won’t create a clear clean energy majority, but it will ensure that a strong Republican voice for clean energy remains in his seat. Brent Bailey is a Republican clean energy supporter running against a utility industry-backed opponent.
• Kansas City (KS) Board of Public Utilities: The Kansas City Board of Public Utilities is facing a crucial election, with three of its six board seats up for grabs. The current general manager is committed to keeping the Nearman Creek Power Station, a dirty and aging coal plant, open, despite the availability of cleaner and cheaper alternatives. The election could bring about a pro-clean energy majority on the board, but further advocacy will be needed to ensure the shutdown of the coal plant.
• Egg Harbor Township (NJ) Council: This election is critical for offshore wind in New Jersey, as Egg Harbor would host a cabling substation for a 1,369 MW project. Support from the Township Council is essential to move the project forward. Democrats Lisa March and Trina Jenkins are running to defeat long-time Republican incumbents. These are tough elections, but have a shot this year.

Stay hungry for results and gossip tomorrow and all week — and let me know as you’ve got any questions!

Thanks for tuning in!